Liu Yuanling, Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Donald Trump's election as the 47th President of the United States has brought significant impact on all international political, economic, security and cultural orders, including global climate governance, and made the whole set of rules and order of world operation established after World War II undergo a turbulent process of restructuring. The future of global climate governance faces great uncertainty.

Trump not only questions the objectivity of climate change and its negative impact on human society, but also opposes the policies and measures to reduce emissions, mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis. He led the United States to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and may even withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in the future.

Under Trump's leadership, various regressive climate initiatives are gradually put into effect. In his first term, he repealed or suspended numerous climate policies, regulations, and research projects from the Obama administration. He appointed officials who were skeptical and opposed to climate change, opening the door for the development and utilization of traditional fossil fuels.

In 2016, the 22nd Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was held in Marrakech. And while the first meeting of the Paris Agreement Conference had just begun, Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. In October 2025, the United Nations Environment Programme released the "Emissions Gap Report 2024," which highlighted the theme "No More Hot Air... Please!" The report highlights a significant gap between countries' rhetoric and reality on climate issues, emphasizing the need for new climate commitments. Under Trump's leadership, the U.S. couldn't even be bothered with rhetoric, let alone uphold past climate commitments, which were cast aside. So, where will global climate governance go from here? Without the United States' participation, how will global climate governance be effectively implemented?

First, it will no longer be true global climate governance. Given the United States' global influence, its production and consumption of fossil fuels, and greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. plays a crucial role in global climate governance. The Biden administration has been actively addressing climate change and has set a goal to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. The Biden administration also aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and plans to invest $2 trillion in infrastructure and clean energy.

To achieve these goals, the United States passed the most significant climate legislation in history, the Inflation Reduction Act, in 2022. Detailed rules, including a list of electric vehicles eligible for subsidies, were not released until April 1, 2024. However, it is clear that these rules will not be implemented by the Trump administration. The likelihood of the remaining funds from the Inflation Reduction Act being allocated is also minimal. The National Clean Energy Council stated that from August 2022 to August 2023, the U.S. private sector built 80 large clean energy facilities with a total investment exceeding $270 billion. This momentum cannot continue in the future, and worse, as Trump wields tariffs against the world, various negative impacts will spill over into international society. For example, studies have shown that Trump's tariffs on solar panels, wind turbine components, and battery storage systems have disrupted global supply chains and increased the cost of global clean energy technology; the Trump administration's tariff policies are likely to stifle Chinese investment in Mexican electric vehicles.

Secondly, Trump's attitude, stance, and actions on climate change have already eroded the trust and confidence urgently needed for global climate governance. Addressing climate change is a systemic project that requires consultation and cooperation from all parties around the world. Only by uniting as a collective force can humanity overcome the climate crisis. Now, Trump's future policies in climate diplomacy will undoubtedly further undermine confidence. As a result, the EU has decided to postpone the implementation of ESG-related regulations, while Indonesia has indicated it may readjust its path to fulfilling the Paris Agreement.

Is this a death sentence for global climate governance? Does global climate governance have no future? Of course no. We still have hope and expectations. First, while the United States is certainly important in global climate governance, it is not the only crucial player. Second, although the president-elect is crucial to U.S. climate policy, he is not the sole decisive force. There are many forces in the United States actively addressing the climate crisis, forces that transcend partisan politics. They exist in the private sector, in tech companies, and among many ordinary people who value environmental protection and care about climate change. Third, there is still potential for joint cooperation between China and the United States, China and Europe, as well as the United States and Europe, to tackle the climate crisis.

Even it is tough time now but we still believe there is hope in the future. China will continue to take the path of climate governance from the perspective of building a community with a shared future for humanity, focusing on emission reduction, mitigation, and adaptation. We are committed to building an ecological civilization and a beautiful China. China will also work hand in hand with all parties around the world to make positive contributions to addressing the climate crisis.

Company: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,CASS

Contact Person: Liu Yuanling

Email: liuyuanling@cass.org.cn

Website: http://www.cass.cn/

Telephone: (86)18610846689

City: Beijing